El Gobierno alemán estima que en 2016 logrará, por primera vez en cuatro décadas, acabar el año con superávit en las cuentas públicas, según han avanzado hoy fuentes del Ministerio de Finanzas.
El aumento de la recaudación fiscal y los intereses históricamente bajos que Alemania paga por colocar sus bonos han permitido al Ejecutivo acelerar el proceso de reducción de la abultada deuda estatal, superior al 80% de su Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) o 1,3 billones de euros.
El Gobierno de la canciller Angela Merkel prevé además que los presupuestos generales de 2013 ya cumplan con el nivel máximo de déficit del 0,35%, tres años antes de lo estipulado en la legislación germana.
Así, el nuevo endeudamiento de la primera economía europea en el próximo ejercicio alcanzará los 18.800 millones de euros, según los presupuestos generales alemanes para 2013 y las líneas financieras para el próximo lustro que el próximo miércoles sancionará el Consejo de Ministros.
Frente a esta cifra están los 32.100 millones de euros de déficit que Alemania prevé acumular en 2012 y los 19.600 millones de euros estimados en el primer borrador de presupuestos para el año que viene, realizado el pasado marzo.
Una gran coalición de cristianodemócratas y socialdemócratas encabezada por Merkel aprobó en 2009 una reforma constitucional que sancionaba el "freno de la deuda" que posteriormente la canciller abogó por implantar en toda la UE.
Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain may hog most of the negative press when it comes to debt in Europe. But Germany too has been in violation of European Union budget rules in recent years, posting a deficit of 4.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010, well above the 3 percent maximum imposed by the Maastricht Treaty.
On Friday, though, Germany's Federal Statistics Office announced that the country's deficit plunged in 2011 and, at 1 percent, is now well within EU limits. The healthy outcome was primarily the result of strong economic growth of 3 percent in 2011, which boosted tax revenues. Whereas the country's deficit was over €100 billion in 2010, it plunged to just €25.8 billion last year.
Still, there are concerns. The Statistics Office confirmed a preliminary announcement made earlier this month that the German economy had contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. The drop was largely due to a 0.8 percent fall in exports following third quarter growth of 2.6 percent. Furthermore, it was announced earlier this week that German tax revenues had fallen in January for the first time since the summer of 2010.
The economic slowdown mirrors the difficulties facing the European Union. On Thursday, the European Commission forecasted that the euro-zone economy would contract by 0.3 percent in 2012 and expects eight of the zone's 17 member states to enter recession. Leading the way into the red will be Greece, with a forecast contraction of 4.4 percent. As recently as last November, the European Commission had forecast euro-zone growth of 0.5 percent.
Germany, however, is expected to buck the trend along with France. Growth in the two countries is to be 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent respectively, according to Commission forecasts. "The outlook for the German economy improved perceptibly," said the German central bank in a statement released earlier this week.
And despite the drop in demand for German exports in the euro zone, forward looking indicators are strong. A key business sentiment survey performed by the Munich-based Ifo Institute rose to its highest level in seven months in February.
Still, there are concerns. The Statistics Office confirmed a preliminary announcement made earlier this month that the German economy had contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. The drop was largely due to a 0.8 percent fall in exports following third quarter growth of 2.6 percent. Furthermore, it was announced earlier this week that German tax revenues had fallen in January for the first time since the summer of 2010.
The economic slowdown mirrors the difficulties facing the European Union. On Thursday, the European Commission forecasted that the euro-zone economy would contract by 0.3 percent in 2012 and expects eight of the zone's 17 member states to enter recession. Leading the way into the red will be Greece, with a forecast contraction of 4.4 percent. As recently as last November, the European Commission had forecast euro-zone growth of 0.5 percent.
Germany, however, is expected to buck the trend along with France. Growth in the two countries is to be 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent respectively, according to Commission forecasts. "The outlook for the German economy improved perceptibly," said the German central bank in a statement released earlier this week.
And despite the drop in demand for German exports in the euro zone, forward looking indicators are strong. A key business sentiment survey performed by the Munich-based Ifo Institute rose to its highest level in seven months in February.
cgh -- with wire reports
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