martes, 17 de septiembre de 2019

Can renewable energy power the world? (Bloomberg)

The chief executive of the world’s largest private coal company sat before a group of U.S. lawmakers who wanted to know whether the fuel had a future. He didn’t hesitate. “Coal,” he said, “is the future.”
It was 2010. Coal supplied nearly half of America’s power, the executive testified, and was growing more than 1.5 times faster than oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewables combined. Global demand was on pace to rise 53% within two decades. And renewable energy? Not an option. “Wind and solar comprise just 1% of today’s U.S. energy mix,” Gregory Boyce, then the chief executive of Peabody Energy Corp., told the members of Congress. “It is unrealistic to suggest that renewables could replace conventional baseload fuels.”
Not quite. This April, for the first time ever, renewable energy supplied more power to America’s grid than coal—the clearest sign yet that solar and wind can now go head-to-head with fossil fuels. In two-thirds of the world, they’ve become the cheapest forms of power.
Solar and wind will power half the globe by 2050, based on BloombergNEF forecasts. By that time, coal and nuclear will have all but disappeared in the U.S., forced out by cheaper renewables and natural gas.

Solar and Wind Take Off as Coal Fades Away

● New plant added during 5-year period
 Existing plant
Coal plants
2005
2010
2015
2020
Solar and wind plants
2005
2010
2015
2020
By 2025, renewable power plants will greatly outnumber non-renewable plants, but still won’t have the same capacity level
Plants sized by total MWh: 2K
6K
● Plant in development, 2021–2025
○ Existing plant
Plant type:
● Coal
 Oil & Gas
 Nuclear/other
 Wind
 Other renewables
 Solar
Offshore wind farms are planned for the Atlantic coast
California has so much day-time solar power that it sometimes ships some of it to other states.
Abundant wind power in Texas has made the Lone Star state the biggest wind state
Source: BloombergNEF
The market triumph of renewable energy marks the biggest victory yet in the fight against global warming. Solar and wind are proliferating not because of moral do-gooders but because they’re now the most profitable part of the power business in most of the world. An industry that once relied on heavy subsidies and was propped up by government mandates is now increasingly standing on its own.
As a recent United Nations report put it: The renewable energy sector is “looking all grown up.”

U.S. Energy Emissions by Sector

Metric tons of carbon dioxide
2B
Transportation
Electric power
Industrial
1B
Residential
Commercial
0
2018
1973
In the effort to slow climate change, the energy sector matters. Electricity generation has traditionally been the world’s biggest source of greenhouse-gas emissions. In the U.S., for the first time since the 1970s, this is no longer the case. Since 2016, American power plants have given off less carbon dioxide than the nation’s transportation sector, where oil continues to dominate. The turnabout owes a lot to cheap and cleaner-burning natural gas, but wind and solar farms are playing an increasingly important role.
Solar, wind and hydropower resources combined generate more than a quarter of the world’s electricity. In China and India that share will surpass 60% by 2050, BNEF estimates show, and Europe will top 90%.
Renewable energy won’t save the world on its own. Power generation accounts for about a quarter of greenhouse-gas emissions being released into the atmosphere in the U.S. The rest comes mainly from transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and heating and cooling homes and businesses.
Those sectors will need to match the sweeping technological advances and more efficient manufacturing that have slashed the costs of solar and wind power. Battery prices have fallen 84% in less than a decade. Cheaper parts are what have made solar and wind more economical to build than coal and gas plants across two-thirds of the world. Five years ago, by BNEF’s count, this was virtually nowhere.

Cheapest Energy Generation Technology By Country

2014
2019
Coal
Wind
Solar
Coal
Gas
Wind
Solar
Gas
Belgium
Algeria
Denmark
Indonesia
Algeria
Argentina
Australia
Argentina
Bulgaria
Germany
Belgium
Chile
Japan
Brazil
Chile
Australia
Uruguay
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Canada
Egypt
Greece
China
Brazil
Philippines
China
France
Canada
Poland
Russia
India
France
Denmark
Greece
Egypt
South Korea
Germany
Israel
Israel
India
Thailand
Mexico
Italy
Mexico
Turkey
Morocco
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
South Africa
Italy
Peru
Vietnam
Peru
U.K.
Spain
Japan
Philippines
U.S.
UAE
Malaysia
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Uruguay
Morocco
Poland
U.S.
South Africa
UAE
South Korea
Spain
Thailand
Turkey
U.K.
Vietnam
Note: Reflecting the cheapest benchmark project for each technology and market.Source: BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook
Low costs sparked a clean-power frenzy that has quadrupled global renewable energy capacity to 1,650 gigawatts within the past nine years—more than every power plant in the U.S. combined. From Western Europe to China, solar and wind are beating out fossil-fuel plants without subsidies. Some projects are ditching long-term contracts altogether, relying instead on exotic hedges.

Solar Leads Power Jobs

U.S. electric power generation jobs
Solar
242K
Gas
113K
Wind
112K
Coal
86K
Hydroelectric
66K
Other
38K
Combined heat and power
29K
Bioenergy
13K
Oil and petroleum
12K
Geothermal
9K
In the U.S., natural gas remains king of the power mix, accounting for about 40% of the nation’s electricity. But renewable energy’s share is quickly climbing, reaching 25% earlier this year.
In a sign of where things are headed, solar installers and wind technicians are the two fastest-growing professions in the U.S. Solar now employs more people than any other power source. Wind supports almost as many jobs as gas.
Today, gas is increasingly coming under attack. Berkeley, California, became the first city in America to ban gas in new homes and businesses earlier this year. Lawmakers from Seattle to San Jose are weighing bans. The British government has proposed a similar prohibition.
In developing parts of the world, coal still dominates. China is home to the largest capacity of hydro, wind and solar power—and it remains the world’s biggest consumer of coal. Pakistan’s dream of generating 60% of its power from clean energy sources is still decades away. In Indonesia, coal plants are so cheap to run that the Southeast Asian nation is projected to nearly double its coal generation in the next 25 years.
The growing divide underscores a global dilemma: Wealthy nations can afford to turn their backs on coal, but it remains an easy fallback in countries where electricity is scarce, unreliable, or unaffordable.

Fossil Fuels On Their Way Out—in Some Countries

Total energy generation by type, 2012–2050
Non-renewable:
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Other
Renewable:
Hydroelectric
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Global (50% renewable by 2037)
100%
75
50%
renewable by 2037
50
25
0
2012
2019
2030
2040
2050
Thailand (2047)
Malaysia (2049)
Japan (2036)
Australia (2029)
Indonesia (2042)
100%
50
0
2019
2050
Mexico (2028)
India (2041)
China (2036)
Turkey (2025)
Philippines (2039)
U.S.
U.K. (2025)
S. Korea (2042)
Italy (2022)
Germany (2022)
Canada (pre-2012)
Brazil (pre-2012)
France (2036)
There’s reason to think coal’s role as the fuel of last resort might change. Solar is being marketed as a cheaper fix for the 1.1 billion people who lack access to electricity. Groups have formed to help rural communities put up panels and erect turbines. Renewable energy installers, including Tesla Inc. and Sunrun Inc., have descended on places like Puerto Rico that have few options for affordable and reliable power.
The laggards today will catch up in the years ahead. In Mexico, for example, wind and solar will jump from 5% of the power mix last year to 77% in 2050, according to BNEF, pushing out coal.
Last year alone, global investments in renewable energy hit almost $273 billion, according to a report by BNEF, UN Environment and the Frankfurt School. That’s three times the estimated spending on coal- and gas-powered generation. Electricity prices, meanwhile, plunge below zero at times in solar-rich Germany and California and wind-rich Texas, sending a signal to generators that they need to back off so they don’t stress the grid.
Cheaper renewable power may be good for consumers and the planet, but the shift is squeezing the profits of conventional power plants.
Coal plants are dying off, and the U.S. government keeps cutting its own demand forecasts for the fuel. Nuclear reactors are retiring early. Natural gas plants in development now are at risk of becoming stranded assets before they’re even paid off. A debate is raging around the world over whether to let these generators go or keep some around in the name of grid “resilience”—a term U.S. President Donald Trump has taken up to make the case for both coal and nuclear subsidies.

Coal Is Disappearing in Most Places

Total energy generation from coal, 2012–2050
Coal
All other energy sources
Global
China
India
Australia
Indonesia
42.4M GWh
11.3M
5.3M
330K
826K
2019
2050
Germany
Malaysia
Philippines
U.K.
South Korea
668K
282K
695K
358K
367K
U.S.
Turkey
Japan
Thailand
Italy
4.7M
510K
980K
361K
343K
Canada
Mexico
France
Brazil
732K
524K
655K
861K
Back when Peabody’s then-CEO showed up before U.S. lawmakers for that climate change hearing nine years ago, the replacement of all of America’s coal plants with zero-emission resources seemed close to an impossibility. Doing so would take “2,400 times today’s solar capacity, 40 times the current wind farms currently in place, 250 new nuclear plants or 500 Hoover Dams,” the coal executive said at the time. Peabody, in a statement this week, said its outlook from a decade ago reflected a mix of internal and external projections, “many of which came to pass and some which did not.”
What’s clear now is that the nation’s renewable energy capacity has surpassed that of coal. Peabody, meanwhile, went on to declare bankruptcy in 2016, along with most every other major coal producer in America.

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